The roles of the WHO include:

• Universal health coverage
• Coordinate responses to health emergency
• Promote health and wellbeing

It has played an influential leading role in health achievements, such as eradicating smallpox, vaccinating against polio, developing an Ebola vaccine. It successfully oversaw the outbreak of SARS, Ebola and other diseases. It currently focuses on diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and other non-transmissible diseases such as cancer and heart diseases. Its functions are largely “normative” says Kelley Lee, research chair in global health governance at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada. Meaning, it is primarily an advisory body, “providing guidelines and technical advice, collecting data, statistics, and so on.”

With the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO found itself under intense scrutiny by some member states, especially by the Trump administration; for failing to do its job in containing the novel coronavirus and acting as a “lapdog” for the Chinese.

Role of the WHO in the COVID-19 pandemic

As the novel coronavirus made its way to every side of the globe, the WHO was responsible in notifying the world of the emergence of an infectious disease with pandemic potential and coordinating a global response by providing technical and guidance support to member states in order to contain the virus. Moreover, it coordinates in the development of a vaccine, in order to better contain the spread of the virus.

Who’s at fault? How is the WHO being criticized?

The WHO was criticized harshly for being too slow to warn the world of the virus, declaring it a pandemic on March 11, 2020; several months after it was warned by Taiwan of the emergence of a disease in Wuhan; the alert went largely ignored by the WHO. Another criticism of the WHO was that it was too generous of its praise for China; despite a near unanimous assumption that China is covering up the true extent of the virus and did not cooperate in the initial stages when it was most crucial. Lawrence Gostin, an American professor who has spent 30 years with the World Health Organization, laments WHO’s incapability to act swiftly, in part because the organization cannot enter without an invitation by the country, which in this case China was blocking; holding China at fault. Lawrence, however, admits that the WHO should have stood up at least.

The Taiwan debacle

A growing number of leaders have been scrutinizing the WHO’s dealing of the pandemic. One thorn has been the email Taiwan sent on December 31, warning the WHO of pneumonia cases in Wuhan. This topic became divisive as critics, including US president Donald Trump, accuse the WHO of ignoring Taiwan’s warning, a claim which the Director-General of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus denies. This has sparked a blame game between the organization and members states over who is at fault for letting the disease spiral out of control. The WHO has defended itself, saying Taiwan did not mention the human to human transmission aspect of the virus and that it was not the first country to send a warning, opposing the claim that it ignored Taiwan’s warning. It is worth mentioning that Taiwan is not a member of the UN, thus is omitted from the WHO; the result of vehement Chinese opposition to its membership.

How Powerful is the WHO? Not much

The WHO does not hold an independent authority and it depends on the cooperation of its member states. “WHO doesn’t have any resources to be the action on the ground” says Kelley Lee. People have placed a false expectation that “‘WHO should do this, WHO should do that.’ Well, WHO is the member states. So if you want WHO to do something, then the member-states have to get together and say, ‘Do this.’”

Professor Lawrence Gostin calls for empowering the organization, providing it a political backing. “I can tell you episode after episode after episode, where countries around the world literally just ignored WHO, ignored scientific evidence, whether from Ebola to SARS to H1N1 to Zika and now with the coronavirus.” he says. Furthermore, he scolds the international community for underfunding the organization, working on a budget similarly sized to a single large US hospital. “The world has the WHO that it deserves because it gives it very little funding the size of one US hospital, it gives it no political backing” demonstrating the entanglement of the WHO in geopolitical power play by major countries, widely undermining the efforts of the organization. ‘The world had enough time to intervene’ Director-General of the WHO Tedros defended the organization.

Who is to blame for letting the novel coronavirus spiral out of control?

Source 1 – 2 – 3 – 4

The post Blame Game. Should the WHO bear full responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic? appeared first on The Loore.

Is it possible to predict future pandemic?

Large initiatives underway

75% of newly emerged diseases that affect humans are of Zoonotic origin, transmitting between animals and humans. In order to better prepare ourselves and possibly predict the outbreak of viruses with pandemic capability, large initiatives and projects were created for that purpose.

The Emerging Pandemic Threats program includes four projects: PREDICT, RESPOND, IDENTIFY, and PREVENT, was being funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), until Donald Trump cut off funds in 2019. Over the span of 8 years, the PREDICT project has discovered nearly 1000 viruses. The Global Virome Project, proposed in 2016; it plans on discovering nearly all the viruses that could infect humans; however, it is still a concept.

The Answer is… Nearly Impossible

According to Jemma Geoghegan and Edward Holmes, two virologists based on Sydney, efforts to predict or prevent pandemics will not succeed. Simply, the number of existing viruses is too many to accurately calculate the odds of predicting and preventing pandemics. Approximately 4400 viruses have been discovered, a meager number considering the millions of viruses yet to be identified. It is estimated that 500,000 undiscovered viruses have the capability to transmit to people.

“We’re only just coming to terms with the vastness of the virosphere.” Says Geoghegan.

There are millions of variables to take into account in each level of the viral contraction that could create an infectious disease, the environment, the animal host, and the virus itself.

According to Kristian Andersen, from the Scripps Research Institute, predicting pandemics “is simply impossible… What you’re trying to predict is likely something that happens maybe once out of tens of billions of encounters, with one virus out of millions of potential viruses. You will lose your fight against the numbers.”

There’s hope…

Despite the shortcomings, technological advancements have made is much easier for us to create a vaccine in record time. We shouldn’t be quick to dispel efforts in predicting pandemics; Jonna Mazer the global director for PREDICT argues that if we held the same complaints in weather forecasting 100 years ago “we wouldn’t have created the data that lets us forecast the weather, which we can do pretty well now.” Although it’s still impossible to predict the occurrence of pandemics, effort should be focused on detecting it early on. Kristian Andersen suggests detecting the first cluster of cases. Instead of actively trying to prevent pandemics from occurring, we need to develop a more effective and rapid framework in containing the spread of a disease. One company – Kinsa – is working on a smart fever detecting device capable of measuring fever fluctuations and collecting data, which is sent to the company for analyzing and mapping out the anomalies that would arise in contrast to the regular fever inducing infectious seasons. This will greatly help authorities detect hotspots and promptly take measures in detecting and containing a viral infection before it makes its way to a wider landscape.

Source 1 – 2 – 3

The post Predicting pandemics. Is it possible? appeared first on The Loore.

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) is a divisive measure that entails a guaranteed minimum income for each citizen by a government. It is also known as a citizen’s income, or simply basic income. A government would entitle each citizen to an income, minimum enough to cover the basic cost of living, whether they are employed or not.

The idea was proposed to address the jobs lost due to technological advancements and automation; however, in time of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent job losses in the millions, the strategy has been gaining steam as an alternate measure to the financial packages earmarked for mitigating the economic and social impact. Moreover, it is proposed as a better alternative to the welfare system and its many failures, such as the infamous “Poverty Trap”.

Funding

A social policy of this magnitude requires significant funding; different approaches have been proposed to cover the cost of UBI.

For one, scrapping and completely eliminating the welfare system already in place would free up $1 trillion to be directed towards funding UBI in the United States. Additionally, in a world where income and social inequality is on the rise and the gap between rich and poor continue to widen, the prospects of taxing the rich “1%” of society seems reasonable enough to redistribute the funds by providing basic income for everyone, and tackling inequality by narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and maintaining social cohesion.

Yanis Varoufakis, a Greek economist and former finance minister of Greece, has proposed the idea of a “Universal Basic Dividend”, directing a percentage of all shares from all companies to a public equity trust and distributing the dividends equally for all members of society as producers of “social capital”.

How does it help the people?

• Social Safety Net: Income to lean back on in times of crisis or job loss
• More time to find better jobs: Allow people to dedicate more time to search for jobs they enjoy doing.
• Care for a relative in need: Take time off from work to care for a sick relative or babysit without losing income.
• Pursue education: Opportunity to pursue or continue further education.
• Less stress: Fear of being financially insecure mitigated.
• Increased Productivity: Lower stress and continued education increases productivity and valuable skills respectively.

How does it help the socio – economics?

Is it feasible?

The feasibility of applying a universal basic income is complex for a number of political, economic and financial reasons, depending on the variety of different countries that exist.

UBI would be more accepting in traditionally socialist countries, while opposition in capitalist or neoliberal nations would be more pronounced and difficult to apply due to lobbying by the “1%” who might be taxed.

Moreover, we have to take into account the financial and economic capabilities of different nations; countries with weak and low GDPs and a high debt burden would see it difficult to apply such a scheme.

Although small scale pilot program has been implemented regarding UBI; this scheme has yet to be applied on a wider scale. Meaning, despite the valuable data derived from the different pilot programs applied, it has never been fully tested on a whole nation; thus any discussion regarding the successful implementation of a program of this magnitude are largely theoretical.

Universal Basic Income is a highly complex and ambitious social program that has recently gained awareness as a potential solution to those affected by the job losses due to pandemic. However, it still remains a divisive program with many hurdles and unanswered questions. Nonetheless, it is an idea worth investing in.

Source 1 – 2 – 3

The post A utopian dream? How can Universal basic income change our lives? appeared first on The Loore.

What are ‘recession shapes’?

They are graphical representation used by economists; often taking the shape and form of letters, most commonly ‘V, U, W and L’; to describe the different types of economic recession/recovery.

• V shaped: Economic recession followed by equally sharp recovery.
• U shaped: Economic recession followed by gradual recovery.
• W shaped: Double dip. Initial recovery after recession; but effects weigh in, plunging growth back down.
• L shaped: Economic recession without recovery.

COVID-19 recession; what would it look like?

Although the world has been through different pandemics throughout modern history, what differentiates the COVID-19 pandemic is the sheer effect it is having on the world economy. Gross domestic product figures saw its worst decline for 1st quarter of 2020 since WWII, stirring debate on what shape would economic recovery take on a graph.

“It is an abrupt stop of economic activity, from 100 to zero in just a few days or weeks,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Research; rendering predictions of economic outlook difficult; also varying between different countries depending on their responses.

Best case scenario: V shaped.

Recession would be brief and severe because of the sudden lockdown; but after a few months, as a result of fiscal and monetary support, and easing of restrictions; growth plunge is followed by an equally sharp recovery.

Most likely scenario: U shaped.

Economic recovery will be more gradual and slower; as long as the threat of COVID-19 looms large, it will be impossible for countries to completely ease lockdown measures, thus preventing the economy from rebounding quickly and sharply.

Possible scenario: W shaped.

After easing lockdown measures, the economy rebounds. However, in the case of an absence of good and efficient national health response, a second wave of COVID-19 infection would demand another strict lockdown, plunging growth again for a second time.

Worst case scenario: L shaped.

A complete lack of government action; without rigorous and effective economic and health policies, the outlook for growth would take the shape of an L, meaning there will be no economic recovery after the pandemic.

Past experiences:

Looking back at previous pandemics and recessions, economic growth had taken the V shaped pattern in “six of the past seven recessions”. Moreover, during the SARS outbreak in 2003, which spread to far less countries and disappeared far quicker than COVID-19, growth recovery also took the form of a V shape. In 2020, COVID-19 is posing a much greater and difficult challenge on the economies of the world, with different responses by countries, some more successful than others; which poses the question…

What shape will the economic recovery of the world take?

Source 1 – 2

The post How will the economy recover from lockdown? What form will it take? appeared first on The Loore.

The COVID-19 pandemic has without a doubt changed many of the norms in our daily lives; this sudden change can have a detrimental effect on our mental health. Countries around the world were placed under strict lockdown, and the feeling of being imprisoned at home has caused depression, stress, and anxiety levels to escalate to higher levels.

Understanding stress

Stress is stimulated by our brains in times of distress and negative emotions; and the sudden imposition of quarantine, as a result of the pandemic, triggered many of the underlying emotions that cause stress. According to the Neuroscientist Daniel Levitin, when a person is going through stress, the brain releases a chemical called “cortisol”, which raises the heart rate, modulates adrenaline levels and clouds our thinking; it also affects the “hippocampus”, which is the part of the brain where all our memories are stored, this causes people to be less productive in work.

The effects of quarantine

When countries around the world began enacting strict national lockdowns; the change came as a sudden shock for the lives of millions around the world. Inevitably, this sudden shift is expressed in negative emotions like fear, uncertainty, anxiety, and boredom; all of which trigger or are triggered by stress. According to an article posted by TIME magazine titled “The Coronavirus Pandemic May Be Causing an Anxiety Pandemic”, it states a study done by the National Institute of Mental Health, that over (19%) of American adults will face an anxiety disorder in a 12-month period. (Kluger, 2020) During such turbulent times, mental health often becomes a silent victim; the fear of socio-economic consequences of the lockdown, such as unemployment and poverty, does not help as well and only compounds the effects. Moreover, those already suffering from a mental illness might see their insecurities get triggered by these negative emotions. According to a survey published by the BBC in an article titled “Coronavirus: Money worries in pandemic drive surge in anxiety”; the findings show that in Britain, more than 25 million people (49.6%) showed higher anxiety levels than the previous year 2019.

in Britain, more than 25 million people (49.6%) showed higher anxiety levels than the previous year 2019.

Coping with stress

The media has a strong effect on our mental health since all the news that it’s currently covering is negative, sparking feelings of fear and worry. In order to cope with the anxiety, we should decrease the amount of time that we spend reading negative news and instead, use this free time on self-development, exercising more often, and maintaining a healthy diet and sleep, in order to balance our “endorphins” and decrease the “cortisol” in our body. All these mental and emotional outbreaks have caused psychotherapy service users such as “Better Help” or “Talk Space” to increase up to (65%) since February. (Kluger 2020)

Anthony Robbins in his book “Awaken The Giant Within”, writes that life is (80%) psychology and (20%) skill; which means that the thoughts that we think and the beliefs that we hold within us throughout the day determine the paths and outcomes in our lives; whether they are positive or negative, it all depends on the quality of our mindset and how we take care of it. Some of the strategies to overcome feelings of anxiety and stress is to practice mindful technics and yoga. In his book “The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari”, Robin S. Sharma states that if we want to overcome the problems that are holding us down, we should be aware of the fact that everything in life is created twice: first in the mind then in reality; this helps us realize that instead of focusing on everything that’s going negative in our current state, we should focus on the good because there always is something good to be grateful for no matter how bad things may seem.

We should decrease the amount of time that we spend reading negative news and instead, use this free time on self-development.

Author: Jack Jizmejian

The post Is ‘Mental Health’ a silent victim of quarantine? appeared first on The Loore.

Apple and Google: an unlikely cooperation

Apple and Google are two of the largest tech companies in the world; their operating systems, iOS and Android represent around 98% of the global market share. The rival companies are joining together in an ambitious yet controversial project; to develop a contact tracing system designed to identify and send notices to users who have come into contact with a person diagnosed with Covid-19.

The rival companies are joining together in an ambitious yet controversial project

Automated contact tracing

The system being developed by Apple and Google will register log by your smartphone every time you come into contact with other people. When one of the people you had come into close contact tests positive for Covid-19 and reports it to public health authorities, you would be notified by receiving an alert through your phone. This will all be done automatically and anonymously.

Bluetooth LE – How it works?

The contact tracing system will be using a radio technology called Bluetooth Low Energy (LE). It emits shorter bursts of connectivity instead of constantly transmitting connection as the standard Bluetooth does, thus draining much less battery. Using this technology, your phone will be exchanging incognito keys with nearby devices, maintaining them in a collected list that remains in your phone. When a person you came into close contact with, reports positive for the virus through a contact tracing app, the keys collected by their phone will be uploaded to a server that will notify the owners who recently exchanged keys with the infected person, including you. The alert will keep the infected persons identity anonymous, while sharing information on what do to next to everyone who came near that person.

Privacy and Security

Apple and Google clarified that the contact tracing app will require consent in order to participate, without collecting personal information nor revealing the identity of the infected person. The question of whether both companies will leave the contact tracing system within their operating system began to circulate, as it can be potentially used for government surveillance or for commercial reasons. In response, both companies vowed to turn off this system once the virus threat subsides and the pandemic ends.

The cooperation between competing companies to develop a software in cooperation with public health authorities represent one of the most progressive public-private partnership. On paper, the idea sounds good, but it remains to be seen how effective it would be in practice.

Source 1 – 2 – 3

The post How Google and Apple will use Technology to track COVID-19 appeared first on The Loore.

The health and economic crisis caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic, has claimed the lives of 165,000 victims, and threw the world into an unprecedented economic crisis worldwide. This crisis is no different in terms of the spread of misinformation; and through social media platforms, it tends to spread rapidly, misleading people into believing the false information about the virus, blurring the lines of what is true and what is not.

Just a Flu

The most common misconception about COVID-19 is that it’s just a flu or a similar disease, undermining the real extent of danger it poses on the health of individuals, especially those who are more at risk, such as the elderly and the ill.

This misconception is fairly understandable as the symptoms are quite alike; however, there are certain characteristics and reasons that make COVID-19 more deadly and serious than the flu.

The most common misconception about COVID-19 is that it’s just a flu or a similar disease.

It’s more contagious

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), that infects the respiratory system, has an R₀ score of about 2; according to the World Health Organization, it is hovering at around 2 to 2.5. R₀ is a diseases basic reproduction number; the contamination level of each virus – it is subject to change depending on measures taken and population, with social distancing crucial and decreased the R number of the disease. A person with COVID-19, on average infects 2 people; a number higher more than the seasonal flu and the flu pandemic of 2009, which had an R0 of (0.9-2.1) and (1.4-1.6) respectively.

Incubation period

One of the biggest differences between the novel coronavirus and the flu is the time it takes for symptoms to appear, which is the incubation period. COVID-19 has an incubation period of up to 14 days, far more than the approx. two days it takes for the symptoms of the flu to appear. Researchers at John Hopkins Bloomberg School place the median incubation period for COVID-19 at an estimated 5.1 days. What makes this difference significant is the fact that a person infected with COVID-19 can spread and contaminate others while they are still asymptomatic, greatly complicating the response to the contagion.

Death rate

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States (CDC) estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths, with a death rate of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the coronavirus, which began to pick up pace in the USA around late March, has already killed more than 40,000, putting the death rate at around 5%, with the WHO placing it at around 3-4%; making COVID-19 far deadlier than the flu.

No vaccine

Probably the major reason for the higher death rate of COVID-19 is the lack of an effective treatment method. Unlike the flu, which antiviral medications and vaccines, ‘commonly known as the flu shot’; COVID-19 does not have a vaccine ready for it yet, making treatment harder and less efficient. Nonetheless, works and trials on developing a vaccine is underway by different biotech companies around the world, and more than 20 vaccines are currently “in development for COVID-19”, which is reported to take around 18 months for it to be ready, a record time.

Despite the similarities between the flu and the novel coronavirus, COVID-19 poses a much greater threat; being more contagious, and far deadlier than the flu; in addition to the lack of a vaccine, which further complicates in treating patients with the virus. COVID-19 is quite different, and fully understanding it is crucial to mount an effective battle in containing and eliminating its threat.

More than 20 vaccines are currently “in development for COVID-19”, which is reported to take around 18 months for it to be ready, a record time.

Source 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

The post Why is Coronavirus more dangerous than the flu? appeared first on The Loore.

COVID-19; the new virus which first appeared in Wuhan, China, quickly spread to around 200 countries and territories; infecting more than 2,000,000 and wreaking havoc in its way. The UN chief alarmed the world that it is facing the worst crisis since WW2.

Businesses have shuttered their doors, leaving millions around the world out of work, with massive economic, social and political repercussions, as countries rush to enact national and local lockdowns in a bid to curb the spread of the virus.

Europe Under Lockdown

Europe is the continent worst hit by the coronavirus, as the grim tally crossed 500,000 cases with nearly 35,000 deaths. Italy and Spain, the worst-hit countries, are bearing the brunt; each having more than 100,000 confirmed cases and more than 10,000 deaths, accounting for three in every four deaths on the continent. Both countries have asked for increased support by European partners as the outbreak has brought their economies to a standstill.

Pleas for Help 

Both Italy and Spain have asked for increased support by European partners in the face of this unprecedented crisis. Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte is urging for a joint borrowing scheme, dubbed “coronabonds”, that would allow less developed EU nations borrow cheap loans with the richer members. Spain, Portugal and Greece have all signaled their support; however, Germany and other northern countries have drawn a red line, bluntly rejecting the idea of a shared debt scheme, threatening to divide the unity of the bloc. “One does not just trust someone else with their credit card when you don’t have the option of controlling their expenses,” head of Germany’s central bank Jens Weidmann told Le Monde.

“One does not just trust someone else with their credit card when you don’t have the option of controlling their expenses.”

Head of Germany’s central bank Jens Weidmann to Le Monde

Rising Skepticism

The rejection and reluctance of Germany and other rich EU nations to implement such a scheme and their largely moot support for Italy and Spain threatens to arouse national feelings among their citizens. “Nationalist instincts, in Italy, but also in Spain and elsewhere, will be much stronger if Europe is not up to the task,” the Italian PM said, warning that the bloc might “lose its foundations before the eyes of our citizens. Additionally, this issue has led to squabbles between European leaders, further undermining the spirit of unity which the bloc has always espoused for. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in a stark remark, said that a debt sharing scheme would mean “crossing a Rubicon” for the eurozone. This in turn garnered an angry response from the Portuguese PM Antonio Costa, slamming Rutte’s comments.; “This type of response is completely ignorant, and this recurring pettiness completely undermines what makes up the spirit of the European Union”

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus and its impact has reverberated around the world, grounding some of the world’s largest and most developed economies to a complete standstill. Europe, the worst affected continent, is facing yet another crisis that is sure to leave a dent on its already shaky unity. A decade of piling misfortunes and subsequent responses, from the Greek debt crisis, to the migrant crisis and Brexit, has greatly undermined the unity of the bloc.

Italian Exit?

Amid the controversy surrounding EU cooperation, many reports have predicted that this could be a major watershed moment for Italy’s relationship with the bloc, and potentially kickstart and catalyze the Italian descent into increasing skepticism of its role and relationship with the European Union. According to polls conducted by news agency Dire on 12-13 March, 88 percent of Italians feel that Europe is failing to support Italy in the crisis, while only 4 percent believe that it is doing enough. And 67 percent of Italians regard EU membership as a disadvantage, up from 47 percent in November 2018.” Such scenario would be a devastating political and economic blow to the EU, which just saw one of its strongest members leave the bloc, an Italian exit would be another unprecedented blow to the European project and potentially spark an existential crisis.

Italy is the third most populous country in the EU with a share of 13.59% (~60 million) of the total (~ 446 million), with its capital Rome also being the third most populous city (proper) in the bloc. With an economy of around $2.5 trillion in GDP (PPP), it is the third largest in the union, representing around 12% of the total. Moreover, Italy contributes a big share in the annual budget and is also one of the most important contributors to EU funding.

It is safe to say that an Italian departure from the European Union will not be taken lightly at all, as Italy is a major player in the bloc economically, politically, demographically and geographically.

Can the European Union safely weather this crisis and salvage its unity?

Source 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

The post The European Disunion – How the Coronavirus reveal divisions in Europe? appeared first on The Loore.