Is it possible to predict future pandemic?

Large initiatives underway

75% of newly emerged diseases that affect humans are of Zoonotic origin, transmitting between animals and humans. In order to better prepare ourselves and possibly predict the outbreak of viruses with pandemic capability, large initiatives and projects were created for that purpose.

The Emerging Pandemic Threats program includes four projects: PREDICT, RESPOND, IDENTIFY, and PREVENT, was being funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), until Donald Trump cut off funds in 2019. Over the span of 8 years, the PREDICT project has discovered nearly 1000 viruses. The Global Virome Project, proposed in 2016; it plans on discovering nearly all the viruses that could infect humans; however, it is still a concept.

The Answer is… Nearly Impossible

According to Jemma Geoghegan and Edward Holmes, two virologists based on Sydney, efforts to predict or prevent pandemics will not succeed. Simply, the number of existing viruses is too many to accurately calculate the odds of predicting and preventing pandemics. Approximately 4400 viruses have been discovered, a meager number considering the millions of viruses yet to be identified. It is estimated that 500,000 undiscovered viruses have the capability to transmit to people.

“We’re only just coming to terms with the vastness of the virosphere.” Says Geoghegan.

There are millions of variables to take into account in each level of the viral contraction that could create an infectious disease, the environment, the animal host, and the virus itself.

According to Kristian Andersen, from the Scripps Research Institute, predicting pandemics “is simply impossible… What you’re trying to predict is likely something that happens maybe once out of tens of billions of encounters, with one virus out of millions of potential viruses. You will lose your fight against the numbers.”

There’s hope…

Despite the shortcomings, technological advancements have made is much easier for us to create a vaccine in record time. We shouldn’t be quick to dispel efforts in predicting pandemics; Jonna Mazer the global director for PREDICT argues that if we held the same complaints in weather forecasting 100 years ago “we wouldn’t have created the data that lets us forecast the weather, which we can do pretty well now.” Although it’s still impossible to predict the occurrence of pandemics, effort should be focused on detecting it early on. Kristian Andersen suggests detecting the first cluster of cases. Instead of actively trying to prevent pandemics from occurring, we need to develop a more effective and rapid framework in containing the spread of a disease. One company – Kinsa – is working on a smart fever detecting device capable of measuring fever fluctuations and collecting data, which is sent to the company for analyzing and mapping out the anomalies that would arise in contrast to the regular fever inducing infectious seasons. This will greatly help authorities detect hotspots and promptly take measures in detecting and containing a viral infection before it makes its way to a wider landscape.

Source 1 – 2 – 3

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The COVID-19 pandemic has without a doubt changed many of the norms in our daily lives; this sudden change can have a detrimental effect on our mental health. Countries around the world were placed under strict lockdown, and the feeling of being imprisoned at home has caused depression, stress, and anxiety levels to escalate to higher levels.

Understanding stress

Stress is stimulated by our brains in times of distress and negative emotions; and the sudden imposition of quarantine, as a result of the pandemic, triggered many of the underlying emotions that cause stress. According to the Neuroscientist Daniel Levitin, when a person is going through stress, the brain releases a chemical called “cortisol”, which raises the heart rate, modulates adrenaline levels and clouds our thinking; it also affects the “hippocampus”, which is the part of the brain where all our memories are stored, this causes people to be less productive in work.

The effects of quarantine

When countries around the world began enacting strict national lockdowns; the change came as a sudden shock for the lives of millions around the world. Inevitably, this sudden shift is expressed in negative emotions like fear, uncertainty, anxiety, and boredom; all of which trigger or are triggered by stress. According to an article posted by TIME magazine titled “The Coronavirus Pandemic May Be Causing an Anxiety Pandemic”, it states a study done by the National Institute of Mental Health, that over (19%) of American adults will face an anxiety disorder in a 12-month period. (Kluger, 2020) During such turbulent times, mental health often becomes a silent victim; the fear of socio-economic consequences of the lockdown, such as unemployment and poverty, does not help as well and only compounds the effects. Moreover, those already suffering from a mental illness might see their insecurities get triggered by these negative emotions. According to a survey published by the BBC in an article titled “Coronavirus: Money worries in pandemic drive surge in anxiety”; the findings show that in Britain, more than 25 million people (49.6%) showed higher anxiety levels than the previous year 2019.

in Britain, more than 25 million people (49.6%) showed higher anxiety levels than the previous year 2019.

Coping with stress

The media has a strong effect on our mental health since all the news that it’s currently covering is negative, sparking feelings of fear and worry. In order to cope with the anxiety, we should decrease the amount of time that we spend reading negative news and instead, use this free time on self-development, exercising more often, and maintaining a healthy diet and sleep, in order to balance our “endorphins” and decrease the “cortisol” in our body. All these mental and emotional outbreaks have caused psychotherapy service users such as “Better Help” or “Talk Space” to increase up to (65%) since February. (Kluger 2020)

Anthony Robbins in his book “Awaken The Giant Within”, writes that life is (80%) psychology and (20%) skill; which means that the thoughts that we think and the beliefs that we hold within us throughout the day determine the paths and outcomes in our lives; whether they are positive or negative, it all depends on the quality of our mindset and how we take care of it. Some of the strategies to overcome feelings of anxiety and stress is to practice mindful technics and yoga. In his book “The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari”, Robin S. Sharma states that if we want to overcome the problems that are holding us down, we should be aware of the fact that everything in life is created twice: first in the mind then in reality; this helps us realize that instead of focusing on everything that’s going negative in our current state, we should focus on the good because there always is something good to be grateful for no matter how bad things may seem.

We should decrease the amount of time that we spend reading negative news and instead, use this free time on self-development.

Author: Jack Jizmejian

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The health and economic crisis caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic, has claimed the lives of 165,000 victims, and threw the world into an unprecedented economic crisis worldwide. This crisis is no different in terms of the spread of misinformation; and through social media platforms, it tends to spread rapidly, misleading people into believing the false information about the virus, blurring the lines of what is true and what is not.

Just a Flu

The most common misconception about COVID-19 is that it’s just a flu or a similar disease, undermining the real extent of danger it poses on the health of individuals, especially those who are more at risk, such as the elderly and the ill.

This misconception is fairly understandable as the symptoms are quite alike; however, there are certain characteristics and reasons that make COVID-19 more deadly and serious than the flu.

The most common misconception about COVID-19 is that it’s just a flu or a similar disease.

It’s more contagious

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), that infects the respiratory system, has an R₀ score of about 2; according to the World Health Organization, it is hovering at around 2 to 2.5. R₀ is a diseases basic reproduction number; the contamination level of each virus – it is subject to change depending on measures taken and population, with social distancing crucial and decreased the R number of the disease. A person with COVID-19, on average infects 2 people; a number higher more than the seasonal flu and the flu pandemic of 2009, which had an R0 of (0.9-2.1) and (1.4-1.6) respectively.

Incubation period

One of the biggest differences between the novel coronavirus and the flu is the time it takes for symptoms to appear, which is the incubation period. COVID-19 has an incubation period of up to 14 days, far more than the approx. two days it takes for the symptoms of the flu to appear. Researchers at John Hopkins Bloomberg School place the median incubation period for COVID-19 at an estimated 5.1 days. What makes this difference significant is the fact that a person infected with COVID-19 can spread and contaminate others while they are still asymptomatic, greatly complicating the response to the contagion.

Death rate

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States (CDC) estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths, with a death rate of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the coronavirus, which began to pick up pace in the USA around late March, has already killed more than 40,000, putting the death rate at around 5%, with the WHO placing it at around 3-4%; making COVID-19 far deadlier than the flu.

No vaccine

Probably the major reason for the higher death rate of COVID-19 is the lack of an effective treatment method. Unlike the flu, which antiviral medications and vaccines, ‘commonly known as the flu shot’; COVID-19 does not have a vaccine ready for it yet, making treatment harder and less efficient. Nonetheless, works and trials on developing a vaccine is underway by different biotech companies around the world, and more than 20 vaccines are currently “in development for COVID-19”, which is reported to take around 18 months for it to be ready, a record time.

Despite the similarities between the flu and the novel coronavirus, COVID-19 poses a much greater threat; being more contagious, and far deadlier than the flu; in addition to the lack of a vaccine, which further complicates in treating patients with the virus. COVID-19 is quite different, and fully understanding it is crucial to mount an effective battle in containing and eliminating its threat.

More than 20 vaccines are currently “in development for COVID-19”, which is reported to take around 18 months for it to be ready, a record time.

Source 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

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